We believe our greatest asset is our people. Let's start with Morgan Stanley. While a handful of automakers have already launched BEVs, increased consumer interestand an increasingly tight regulation landscapewill lead others to do so. will be well-positioned for long-term growth. "Laura and the Motional team are behind some of the self-driving industry's largest leaps forward," a Motional spokesperson told Insider. Global institutions, leading hedge funds and industry innovators turn to Morgan Stanley for sales, trading and market-making services. In other words, the skys the limit. Multicultural and women entrepreneurs are the cutting-edge leaders of businesses that power markets. Companies in this space could benefit significantly from higher consumer adoption of electric vehicles. Autonomous vehicles could change not only the way we move from point A to point B, but also how we live our lives. Our insightful research, advisory and investing capabilities give us unique and broad perspective on sustainability topics. Our board of directors and senior executives hold the belief that capital can and should benefit all of society. Regina Savage, global head of automotive and mobility technology, Morgan Stanley Regina Savage The autonomous-vehicle industry has been a hot sector for investment banks in recent years,. In 1940, automaker Henry Ford said, "Mark my words: a combination airplane and motorcar is coming." Morgan Stanleys U.S.Researchteams worked together to identify 30 companies that they believe are favorably exposed to growth opportunities in a world moving toward shared mobility, autonomous driving, and electrification. In the transport sector, autonomous trucks may offer substantial growth and cost-cutting opportunities to fleet operators that can apply the optimal technologies to transform their existing networks. In November 2013 Morgan Stanley announced their blue paper report: "Autonomous Cars: Self-Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm." The authors predicted trillions in savings but the announcement provided little data on where those savings would come from. Most of the battery cell costs are driven by the price of materials and composition, Hendrikse says. Wide adoption of BEVs will also expand the need for an entire new level of electrical and electronic systems that dont exist in internal combustion vehicles. Our monthly Global Equity Observer shares our thoughts on world events as seen through the lens of our high quality investment process. For Morgan StanleyResearchon urban air mobility, ask your Morgan Stanley representative orFinancial Advisorfor the full report, Flying Cars: Investment Implications of Autonomous Urban Air Mobility" (Dec. 2, 2018). Browning was a senior faculty member of Carnegie Mellon's Robotics Institute and worked on mapping and localization technology for Uber's autonomous-vehicle unit before joining Argo, in 2016. Insider asked self-driving startups, analysts, and VCs to nominate the industry's biggest stars. In logistics, drone package delivery is in active testing. The path from here involves many hundreds of billions of dollars of capital investment across the sector stack including autos, commodities, cap goods and the supporting infrastructure.. But in a future of shared, autonomous vehicles with much higher utilization, electric cars make far more economic sense than their gasoline counterparts. While it's true that electric cars have hardly taken the market by storm, Jonas notes that, today, the same low utilization of private cars that so invites market disruption also torpedoes any cost efficiencies an electric car could deliver. Since Nuro's delivery vehicles don't carry people, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration ruled they didn't need some features that would be required in passenger cars, like side mirrors and windshields. As Tesla's senior director of artificial intelligence, Karpathy oversees Autopilot's neural networks, which allow the system to learn to make better decisions by studying videos and images captured by Tesla vehicles. Illiquid securitiesmay be more difficult to sell and value than public traded securities (liquidity risk). They also may be subject to counterparty, liquidity, valuation, correlation and market risks. Indeed, Many of the full benefits of a shared, electric, and autonomous ecosystem may take decades to fully play out, he says, but industry developments and investor appreciation of the technological path can have a material impact on share prices of select companies even over a three-year horizon.. 2023Morgan Stanley. Hayon, one of Mobileye's first employees, led the development of software that allows Mobileye ADAS systems to understand how nearby objects are moving so that they can warn the driver or take evasive action to avoid a collision. Multicultural and women entrepreneurs are the cutting-edge leaders of businesses that power markets. Hayon is leading the company's work on self-driving technology with an approach the company calls "true redundancy." "Compared to the other regions globally, we assume slower miles-traveled growth and lower shared-mobility penetration in Europe," says Morgan Stanley analyst Harald Hendrikse. Morgan Stanley leadership is dedicated to conducting first-class business in a first-class way. Though some have criticized Tesla for releasing new Autopilot capabilities in an unfinished form and for declining to develop a more robust system to make sure drivers pay attention to the road, Autopilot has broken ground for driver-assistance systems and received high marks for its capabilities. Our culture of access and inclusion has built our legacy and shapes our future, helping to strengthen our business and bring value to clients. Without control over powertrain, and with greater supplier content than ever before, it could be much harder for the major automakers to maintain their competitive position, branding, and pricing power. And, Farshchi added, Zoox's software has played a key role in setting the company apart from its competitors. The market for private auto ownership is likely headed for disruption. Yeung notes that the Chinese government has invested heavily in public transportation. Zoox has taken a difficult and unusual approach compared to its peers: While most of its rivals are focusing on automated-driving software or hardware, Zoox is designing and assembling an autonomous vehicle, all without the help of a major automaker. Battery technology, processing and computing power, and advanced composite systems all overlap with eVTOL aircraft manufacturing. Morgan Stanley has developed a framework to assess the appeal of shared, autonomous and electric vehicles in particular countries and regions. Ask your Morgan Stanley representative or Financial Advisorfor the full report, The Shared Autonomous 30 (Sep 22, 2016). Yet, its worth considering: Passengers in autonomous vehicles wont just be consuming media, entertainment and next-gen broadband connectivitythey will likely also be eating and drinking, without having to worry about safety. Auto dealers could stop selling cars altogether and evolve into a 100% service model in a highly consolidated group of mega-fleet managers. Around half of the component cost of the battery cell is in the cathode. In the autonomous-vehicle industry, it can be difficult to identify the most important supporting players from the outside. Check the background of our firm and registered representatives on FINRA's BrokerCheck. Morgan Stanley's analyst team thinks the answer could be yes. Called STEEPL, the tool is used to gauge a region's social, technological, economic, environmental, political and legal landscape as it pertains to the automotive market. Morgan Stanley estimates that in 2030, cars will drive more than 19.6 billion miles worldwide, far higher than the 10.2 billion they traveled in 2015. We offer scalable investment products, foster innovative solutions and provide actionable insights across sustainability issues. The services described on this website may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all persons. Shared carstaxis and cars operated by ride-sharing companies, but not car rentalin 2015 accounted for 4% of global miles traveled, but by 2030, Morgan Stanley estimates that number could reach 26%. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. Andrej Karpathy is a key figure behind the development of Tesla's Autopilot driver-assistance system. Instead the regulatory and societal concerns surrounding the technology will need to catch up to the tech itself, Jonas says. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this Portfolio. Whether its hardware, software or age-old businesses, everything today is ripe for disruption. Discover who we are and the right opportunity for you. Tell us about yourself. They also may be subject to counterparty, liquidity, valuation, correlation and market risks. Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanleys Head of Global Auto & Shared Mobility Research, says A confluence of competitive, technological and regulatory forces have pulled-forward auto makers plans to aggressively introduce EVs over the next 3 to 5 years vs. 20 to 25 years previously. $TSLA pic.twitter.com/P4wD5TtDUH Past performance does not guarantee future results. During Estrada's tenure, Nuro became the first autonomous-vehicle company to receive an exemption from select federal safety standards. "He's probably looked at more AV companies than anybody anywhere," Brennan said. Autonomous vehicles use a suite of sensors, actuators and a central computer to "perceive" the environment and automate the driving process, thereby enabling the vehicles to drive themselves without human involvement. For European banks, financial inclusion is not only socially responsibleit may help drive sustained economic growth in emerging markets. Toward that end, the CEO of a major airplane manufacturer announced in September, 2018, that the company is investing in urban mobility and flying taxis." But now Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas has come up with another ingenious 2-by-2 chart so much en vogue with international strategy consultants which highlights the core transformative forces at work. A Morgan Stanley team of analysts, including noted Apple analyst Katy Huberty, estimates that by 2040 the time humans spend inside cars will reach 1.2 trillion hours a year, up from 600. At Morgan Stanley, giving back is a core valuea central part of our culture globally. In 1940, automaker Henry Ford said, Mark my words: a combination airplane and motorcar is coming. Ford was teased for the statement, but now, decades later, the same technologies that power drones and steer autonomous vehicles could launch flying cars from the pages of sci-fi comics to the skies of our cities. From our startup lab to our cutting-edge research, we broaden access to capital for diverse entrepreneurs and spotlight their success. Learn from our industry leaders about how to manage your wealth and help meet your personal financial goals. But what are the business implications for manufacturers as the world flips the switch from combustion to battery? Stay abreast of the latest trends and developments. A more bullish forecast places the market at $2.9 trillion. Portfolios are subject tomarket risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the Portfolio will decline and that the value of Portfolio shares may therefore be less than what you paid for them. However, the Morgan Stanley team doesn't believe technology will be an ultimate limiting factor. Plus, moreIdeas. Plus, more Ideas. On the other hand, the country's social landscape is discouraging, as private car ownership is deeply woven into the American cultural fabric. It is the responsibility of every person reading this material to fully observe the laws of any relevant country, including obtaining any governmental or other consent which may be required or observing any other formality which needs to be observed in that country. This material is a general communication, which is not impartial, is for informational and educational purposes only, not a recommendation to purchase or sell specific securities, or to adopt any particular investment strategy. Tell us about yourself. The firm cites how cars are only utilized 4 percent of the time and more than 600 billion hours . We offer timely, integrated analysis of companies, sectors, markets and economies, helping clients with their most critical decisions. We deliver active investment strategies across public and private markets and custom solutions to institutional and individual investors. Autonomous cars combine a variety of techniques to perceive their surroundings, including radar, laser light, GPS, odometry, and computer vision. At Morgan Stanley, giving back is a core valuea central part of our culture globally. We help people, businesses and institutions build, preserve and manage wealth so they can pursue their financial goals. Morgan Stanley Blue Paper: Autonomous Cars. With the mass production of autonomous vehicles, the. Prior to making any investment decision, investors should carefully review the strategys relevant offering document. In fact, it doesn't even have a steering wheel, or pedals, or a gas tank. 1 The Relative Frequency of Unsafe Driving Acts (Background), National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, August 15, 2017. 2023Morgan Stanley. As a global financial services firm, Morgan Stanley is committed to technological innovation. We provide comprehensive workplace financial solutions for organizations and their employees, combining personalized advice with modern technology. Long-term trends, including technology's impact on pricing, are likely to keep inflation at bay for longer than economists originally expected. At Morgan Stanley, we put our beliefs to work. "Miles" rather than cars sold" delivers the message that the industry is moving toward some combination of auto sales and incremental sales of auto-based transport. We help people, businesses and institutions build, preserve and manage wealth so they can pursue their financial goals. Current numbers vary widely from country to country, depending on the maturity of the market. Whereas the per-mile operating costs of shared vehicles today far outweigh those of privately owned vehicles, autonomous cars unburdened by driver-cost could achieve a shared cost per mile below that of owned vehicles by as early as 2030, according to Morgan Stanley. Counterpoint Global consists of 56 people, including 32 investors, four disruptive change researchers, two consilient researchers and two sustainability researchers. We deliver active investment strategies across public and private markets and custom solutions to institutional and individual investors. Slow dealmaking. During a brief appearance at a Morgan Stanley conference today, CEO Elon Musk briefly commented that the vehicles to be built on Tesla's next-gen platform will operate "almost entirely in. This is a nascent market, and there will be many different ways to pay for BEV charging in the coming years.. Before joining Aurora, in 2019, she was Lyft's director of business development and strategy, where she focused on automated-driving technology. Counterpoint Global discusses the evolution of enterprise drones and its disruptive impact. But the shift to BEVs means up to 50% of the value of the car could migrate from mechanical to electrical systems and electronics. Whether its hardware, software or age-old businesses, everything today is ripe for disruption. For investors, the rise of autonomous vehicles has the potential to impact industries as far afield as health care, insurance, internet and infrastructure. At Morgan Stanley, giving back is a core valuea central part of our culture globally. See how you can make meaningful contributions as a student or recent graduate at Morgan Stanley. Across all our businesses, we offer keen insight on today's most critical issues. It involves creating two autonomous systems one using only cameras, the other radar and lidar that can operate safely on their own, then bringing the two systems together. "Smartphones are a $500bn annual TAM. At Morgan Stanley, we lead with exceptional ideas. We offer scalable investment products, foster innovative solutions and provide actionable insights across sustainability issues. Morgan Stanley raised its previous enterprise value estimate for the Alphabet unit by $100 billion, with robotic trucking and delivery potential looking like a bigger revenue source than passenger . All rights reserved. Telecom and communications systems will be crucial to the shared, autonomous ecosystem, which will require a transformation of the supporting infrastructure to connect vehicles to other vehicles, and vehicles to infrastructure, handling high-volume data reliably and securely. All rights reserved. From volatility and geopolitics to economic trends and investment outlooks, stay informed on the key developments shaping today's markets. We have the experience and agility to partner with clients from individual investors to global CEOs. Hardware makers could soon embed chips in their devices that replace SIM cards, a small change with significant implications for the mobile value chain. Counterpoint Global discusses psychedelics as medicine and its disruptive impact. Our monthly Global Equity Observer shares our thoughts on world events as seen through the lens of our high quality investment process. 2 2016 Was the Deadliest Year on American Roads in Nearly a Decade, Fortune, February 15, 2017. Road traffic injuries, World Health Organization, August 16, 2017. However, OEMS and suppliers which provide superior technology (hardware, software, integrated experiential design) or quality and scale for key features (fuel efficiency, safety, lightweight materials, etc.) Our insightful research, advisory and investing capabilities give us unique and broad perspective on sustainability topics. In general,equities securitiesvalues also fluctuate in response to activities specific to a company. Theodosiou-Pisanelli and her team are responsible for defining the products Aurora builds for its growing list of partners and running the programs that deliver them. The views and opinions are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Legal issues and likely objections to autonomous technology from auto workers and dealers are also discouraging, but not enough to halt development, Jonas says. For Morgan StanleyResearchon the future of battery powered vehicles, ask your Morgan Stanley representative orFinancial Advisorfor the full report, On the Charge, (Aug. 31, 2017). Everything we do at Morgan Stanley is guided by our five core values: Do the right thing, put clients first, lead with exceptional ideas, commit to diversity and inclusion, and give back. We value our commitment to diverse perspectives and a culture of inclusion across the firm. For more Morgan Stanley Researchon shared, autonomous and electric vehicles, ask your Morgan Stanley representative or Financial Advisor for the full Blue Paper report, Global Investment Implications of Auto 2.0" (April 16, 2016). Mohamed Elshenawy has led Cruise's software team through a period of rapid growth as the company works toward launching robotaxi services in San Francisco and Dubai. Electric-powered vehicles can deliver yet more efficiency. Automated driving technology relies heavily on continuous, high-precision, and high-reliability positioning in complex urban situations. The Morgan Stanley Freight Transportation team believes that autonomous and semiautonomous driving technology will be adopted far faster in the cargo markets than in passenger markets. portfolio liquidity) of events. Counterpoint Globals culture fosters collaboration, creativity, continued development, and differentiated thinking. It expresses no views as to the suitability of the investments described herein to the individual circumstances of any recipient or otherwise. However, as shared, autonomous vehicles become more widespread, Jonas suggests that total miles traveled may serve as a more useful yardstick because it better reflects not only the state of the market, but also the industry's evolving business model. | Are autonomous cars the killer application for 5G? The list features employees from Tesla, Zoox, Morgan Stanley, and more. Morgan Stanley Distribution, Inc. "Whenever I'm hearing about a big deal going down, I'm usually trying to get a hold of Regina to see what she's heard," he said. As Zach said in that article, Morgan Stanley was warning potential investors that Tesla could go up a lot or down a lot. Motional expects to start adding robotaxis to Via's network during the first half of this year. Macro and thematic insights shaping the global investment landscape. Se lf-Driving the New Auto Industry Pa r-adigm; November 2013. These include: low utilization (on average, cars are used 4% of a day, with an available seat-mile utilization of barely 1%); consumption of finite resources (cars consume 500 billion gallons of fuel a year, accounting for 45% of global oil demand); and public safety (roughly 3,500 traffic fatalities per day globally). The market could likely begin as an ultra-niche add-on to existing transportation infrastructure, similar to how helicopters operate today. For 87 years, weve had a passion for whats possible. The views and opinions are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. How this transition plays out will have significant impact on component suppliers, semiconductor manufacturers, commodities, chemical producers and players in capital goods. According to Nicholas Ashworth, Co-Head of European Utilities Research, a consensus has yet to emerge on the number of public charging points needed to service the BEV fleet. We lead with exceptional ideas, prioritize diversity and inclusion and find meaningful ways to give backall to contribute to a future that benefits our clients and communities. Piper is an auto-industry veteran with a rsum that included Saab, Ferrari, and Qoros Auto before he landed at Zoox in 2016. In Europe, extensive public transportation options and the political strength of auto and parts manufacturers are obstacles to shared vehicle adoption, but electric vehicles bode well for the region's strengthening emissions standards. According to a new Morgan Stanley report, the effects of this shift will be dramatic for automakers but they will be far from the only industry disrupted, with opportunities and challenges throughout the automotive supply chain. For the complete content and important disclosures, refer to the, View All 1GT: Climate Investing Reinvented. Morgan Stanley is differentiated by the caliber of our diverse team. Get the latest insights, analyses and market trends in our newsletter, podcasts and videos. The impact of flying cars would only be limited by imagination. This kind of transformation isnt a flashy two-seater with lots of zoom but limited accommodation. See how you can continue your career journey at Morgan Stanley. We offer timely, integrated analysis of companies, sectors, markets and economies, helping clients with their most critical decisions. Further, it could be much easier for new competitors to enter the market since a greater portion of vehicle parts could be outsourced. Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. Discover who we are and the right opportunity for you. She's helped put together funding rounds and acquisitions for companies like TuSimple and NuTonomy, the startup that turned into Motional. Urban air mobility represents business opportunities within infrastructure, fleet management, software, hardware and content, much like the opportunity for autonomous vehicles," Jonas says. National Highway Transportation Safety A dministration (NHTSA 2013): Sign up to get Morgan Stanley Ideas delivered to your inbox. Drones and VTOLs could be part of the evolving solution of last-mile parcel delivery challenges, says Ravi Shanker, equity analyst covering the North American transportation industry. Under Estrada, Nuro has also become the first company to test driverless vehicles in three states, a Nuro spokesperson told Insider. While some investors may be cheering softer-than-expected inflation data, revenues may begin to disappoint in the face of a credit crunch brought on by recent banking stress. Global institutions, leading hedge funds and industry innovators turn to Morgan Stanley for sales, trading and market-making services.
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